Annual estimation population is based on cohort component method. This is a standard demographic method, which uses various data sources for the base components of population change. Population dynamics are defined by four components:
- Natural Increase (Births and deaths)
The starting point for the calculation of the resident population was considered the resident population on January 1st of the previous year. Births by sex during the 12 month period were added to this population and deaths by age, sex and prefecture respectively were deducted.
- Net Migration
International movements (international migration) are the most difficult component to measure, as a population register does not exist in Albania yet. In this way we use the best ‘proxy’ data to measure migration, based mainly on data collected from the migration module of the labor force survey combined with population projection rates 2011-3031.
- Births
The population change due to births. The live births that occurred during January 1st to December 31th of the previous year are added to population aged zero by sex and disaggregated by prefecture of the civil office where the births were registered.
Live Births Data
Live births by sex are provided by General Directory of Civil Status, which brings to INSTAT only the number of births by residents in Albania. INSTAT considers as a birth, those which occur or not in Albania, but the parents residence is in Albania and the birth act is issued from a Civil Office in Albania.
Late registered births
We make an adjustment in the number of the late registered births for the actual year, in order to include all occurred births in a reference period. The number of late registered births in the previous year are considered as proxy for late registration of the actual year, considering the assumption (as a result of our continuous analyses) that the number of late registered births doesn’t change a lot from year to year.
- Deaths
The population change due to deaths. Registered deaths in Albania from January 1st to 31 December of the previous year are deducted from the population by sex, age and prefecture of residence. Data for deaths are provided by the General Directorate of Civil Status by main demographic characteristics. We take in consideration all deaths of Albanian residents during a reference period and not considering the deaths occurred abroad (emigrants).
Late registered deaths
We make an adjustment in the number of the late registered deaths for the actual year, in order to include all occurred deaths in a reference period. The number of late registered deaths in the previous year are considered as proxy for late registration of the actual year, considering the assumption (as a result of our continuous analyses) that the number of late registered deaths doesn’t change a lot from year to year.
- Internal movements
The internal movements, inside the territory of the country, are also provided yearly by the General Directorate of Civil Status. The data received contains all the internal movements of the population, including the change of residence (prefecture) reflected in the destination civil office of the person. Internal movements of the persons which are not registered in the respective civil offices in the destination prefecture are not considered.
6. Re-estimation Methodology
The methodology for the re-estimation of population is based on the cohort component Lexis diagram, applying the population balance equation with all its components. Initially, the population from the 2023 Census was projected from the Census moment (midnight of September 17–18, 2023) to January 1, 2024. As a starting point for the population re-estimation, was used the population of first January, 2012 (immediately after the 2011 Census), which was then projected forward to January 1, 2024.
The assessment of the quality of administrative data on births, deaths, and internal migration has confirmed a high level of reliability and coverage. As part of further improving data quality and harmonizing with international practices, data cleaning and validation procedures have been applied, including the identification and cleaningof stillbirth cases. Although these cases represent a very small numerical weight and have a negligible impact on the overall population balance, their treatment contributes to increased methodological accuracy.
For the net migration component, due to known challenges in its direct measurement, an indirect estimation approach has been used, based on comparative analysis between the two censuses (2011 and 2023). This derived estimate of net migration has been integrated into the population balance equation to ensure consistency between counted and projected population levels.
