The population of Albania

The population of Albania

The population of Albania started to decline in 1990, which marked a new phase in Albania’s political, economic, and demographic development. Prior to 1990, the country experienced a steady population growth. In the subsequent period, lower fertility and, particularly, increased emigration were the primary factors contributing to the population decrease.

It is important to know how many inhabitants currently live in the country and how many there will be in the future, so there can be better decisions regarding the construction of schools, hospitals and roads. It is also important to know how old the population is and will be in the coming years, in order to plan for pensions or health care for example.

Decreasing population

The resident population in Albania, according to the 2023 Population and Housing Census, is 2.4 million usual residents, and compared to the 2011 Population and Housing Census, there is a decrease of about 420 thousand usual residents. The downward trend continues to be present from previous years.

Fact box:

The resident population is based on the concept of usual residence, which includes all those persons who lived or intend to live in the country for at least 12 months, regardless of their nationality. It is usually calculated on first January of a given year.

The source can be the most recent Population Census (a census is when the population is counted or it is the attempt to provide a statistical picture of the population and housing, including the complete count of all individuals, households and housing units at a single point in time, together with some of their characteristics.)

The Population and Housing Census 2023 is the third census conducted in Albania since the 1990s and the 12th in the history of the census in the country since 1913. Traditionally conducted through paper questionnaires and door-to-door visits, this census introduced a comprehensive digital transformation by utilising electronic questionnaires administered via tablets.

Since the Census is normally carried out every 10 years, a yearly adjustment has to be made in order to get the population number for a specific year. This adjustment consists of the natural population change and the net migration.

The natural increase of the population is calculated by subtracting the number of deaths from birth. Net migration reflects the number of immigrants (population moving into the country) minus the number of emigrants (population moving out of the country).

In some country’s population registers are used instead.

Decreasing of births

During the period 2011-2023, the number of births has decreased significantly: from about 34 thousand in 2011, to about 24 thousand in 2023, while the number of deaths per year has remained between 20 thousand and 22 thousand for the period 2011-2019, but has increased to about 30.5 thousand deaths in 2021, influenced by the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic, while in 2023 it returned to the previous trend with about 21 thousand deaths. Usually, more boys are naturally being born than girls, but since men have a higher mortality there are more old women than men.

Women give birth less

Total fertility rate is the average number of children born alive to a woman taking into consideration current fertility rates. It tells us how many children a woman is expected to give birth during her lifetime. It is widely accepted that 2.1 children per woman is the replacement level needed for the population of a given country. In Albania, for years this indicator has been below the replacement level.

Some of the social factors that can influence fertility rates are: cultural norms, level of education, religion, use of contraceptive methods, abortion, impact of migration, children as a source of labor (on family farms), children as support for couples at older ages, costs of raising children, etc.

TFR can be reflected in the number of population in the next decades and have impact, not only in decreasing the population, also in socio-economic factors.

Albanians live longer than before

How long is a person expected to live? This is measured through the indicator life expectancy.

It can be expressed as the life expectancy at birth, which is the number of years a new-born baby can expect to live.

Fact box:

The calculation of life expectancy considers the mortality conditions today; resulting in how likely it currently is to die at each age. The life expectancy is normally calculated for the total population and also separately for women and men. Life expectancy for women is generally higher than for men.

Life expectancy at birth has been increasing from 2011 to 2019, with women tending to live longer. Life expectancy at birth has declined during the years 2020-2021, affected by the increase in the number of deaths from the effects of the Covid-19 pandemic.

In 2022, life expectancy at birth was estimated at 77.3 years for men and 80.9 years for women (who are expected to live 3.6 years longer than Albanian men born in the same year).

The results of Census 2023 show that five out of six centenarians in Albania are women.

Sex ratio

The sex ratio of the population according to the 2023 Population and Housing Census is 98.2 (the number of males per 100 females). At ages as young as 10, males outnumber females, with a sex ratio as high as 108. This ratio reverses in the 40s and after 80s, with a steep decline due to longer life expectancy of women compared to men.

Aging population - population structure

From the comparison between the 2011 and 2023 Censuses, it results that the population of Albania has aged, where the elderly 65 years and older occupy about 20 % of the population, from about 11 % they occupied in 2011. The average age of the population in the 2023 Census was 42.5 years, increasing from 35.3 years in the 2011 Census.

Fertility below replacement level since 2001, increased life expectancy, and migration remain the main drivers of population aging.

Fact box:

Median age is the age that divides a population into two numerically equal groups, that is, half the people are younger than this age and half are older.

The average age of a population is calculated as the arithmetic mean, expressed in years.

Dependency ratios

The transition to an older population is also seen in the 2023 Census dependency ratios.

The youth dependency ratio (the ratio of the number of persons under working age 0-14 to the number of persons of working age, 15 to 64) decreased to 24.0 % from 30.4 % estimated in the 2011 Census, while the old dependency ratio (the ratio of the number of elderly persons, over working age 65+, to the number of persons of working age, 15 to 64) increased to 30.4 %, from 16.7 % in the 2011 Census.

In Figure 4, we highlight the dependency ratios of the elderly according to the prefectures, analyzing the data of the Census 2023. This report shows the percentage of elderly persons, over working age (65+ years), with the number of persons of working age (15- 64 years old).

Analyzed at the prefecture level, Kukës and Gjirokastër hold opposite positions in terms of dependency ratios: Kukës has the highest dependency ratio of young people (31.8%) and the lowest dependency ratio of the elderly (19.9 %). Whereas, Gjirokastër has the lowest youth dependency ratio (19.0%) and the highest elderly dependency ratio (46.1%).

Population distribution by prefectures

Referring to the 2023 Census, approximately one third of the Albanian population (31.6%) lives in the prefecture of Tirana. The second prefecture with the highest percentage of the population is Fieri with about 10.0 %. Kukës and Gjirokastër have the lowest percentage, with 2.6 % and 2.5 % of the respective population

For more information CLICK on:

Press releases

https://www.instat.gov.al/en/themes/demography-and-social-indicators/population/#tab3

Tables and graphs

https://www.instat.gov.al/en/themes/demography-and-social-indicators/population/#tab2

Methodology

https://www.instat.gov.al/en/themes/demography-and-social-indicators/population/#tab4

Articles/Books

https://www.instat.gov.al/media/13626/cens-2023-census-botim.pdf

https://www.instat.gov.al/media/12917/regional-statistical-yearbook-2023__.pdf

https://www.instat.gov.al/media/12598/burra-dhe-gra-2023.pdf

https://www.instat.gov.al/media/12769/albania-in-figures-2022.pdf